2011 Census Data on Migration
According to census data, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have a disproportionately high number of out-migrants, while migrants constitute more than one-third of the population in metros like Delhi and Mumbai.
Migration is the movement of people from one place to another. It can be over a short or long distance, be short-term or permanent, voluntary or forced, intranational or international.
§ According to the 2011 Census, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are responsible for the most number of migrants as 20.9 million people migrated outside the state from the two states.
§ This is 37% of the total number of people who were inter-state migrants according to that enumeration.
§ Delhi and Mumbai are widely considered migrant magnets and the 2011 Census bears that out. According to it migrants from other states in Delhi and Mumbai numbered 9.9 million, or almost a third of the combined population of 29.2 million.
§ The Hindi belt is the main source of migrants. According to the census, four states, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh accounted for 50% of India’s total inter-state migrants.
§ On the other hand, Maharashtra, Delhi, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana housed 50% of the country’s inter-state migrants.
§ These shares are much higher than the share of these states in India’s total population.
§ Uttar Pradesh figures in both lists – while there are people who leave it in search of livelihoods, there are also clearly people who head for it in search of livelihoods.
Inter-state migrations in India
§ Uttar Pradesh has the highest share of out-migrants while Maharashtra has the highest share of in-migrants.
§ The number of inter-state migrants grew at 55% between the 1991 and 2001 Census.
§ This came down to just 33% between the 2001 and 2011 Census.
Reasons behind Migration
§ The reasons vary by gender, two-thirds of women migrated from their last place of residence because of marriage. The gender-gap in migration for economic purposes (work, business and education) increases with the distance of migration.
o For every woman who migrated for work, business or education, the number of men who migrated within district, across districts but within states and across states was 3.2, 4.3 and 7.4 respectively.
§ Among men, work and business account for one-third of total migrations, which is also the single largest reason for migration among men.
§ While migration for marriage among women is skewed towards closer distances, men do not seem to factor in distance while migrating for work.
Source: Hindustan Times
India’s Falling Fertility Rate
India’s total fertility rate (TFR) is declining. It is now 2.2 per woman, nearing the replacement rate of 2.1, according to the latest government data.
§ The government’s Sample Registration System in 22 states shows that TFR for India declined to 2.2 in 2017 after being stable at 2.3 between 2013 and 2016.
§ The 2017 figure is just 10 basis points more than the replacement level of 2.1%.
TFR indicates the average number of children expected to be born to a woman during her reproductive span of 15-49 years.
The replacement level is the number of children needed to replace the parents, after accounting for fatalities, skewed sex ratio, infant mortality, etc. Population starts falling below this level.
§ The total fertility rate has more than halved in both urban and rural areas, falling even below the replacement level in the former where it is 1.7, down from 4.1 in 1971.
o In rural areas, TFR has fallen from 5.4 to 2.4 during the same period.
o For rural areas, it varies from 1.6 in Delhi and Tamil Nadu to 3.3 in Bihar.
o For urban areas, the variation is from 1.1 in Himachal Pradesh to 2.4 in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.
o Of the 22 states, only six have a TFR of 2 or more in urban areas. There are 10 states where TFR is below 2 in rural regions.
§ In different age groups, the 25-29 age is the most fertile, except in Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra, where it peaked between 20 and 24. Only J&K hits the peak after 30.
§ TFR goes below 2 in both urban and rural areas, where girls complete schooling and reduces further as they pass college.
o Bihar, with the highest TFR of 3.2, had the maximum percentage of illiterate women at 26.8%, while Kerala, where the literacy rate among women is 99.3%, had among the lowest fertility rates.
§ As more cities come up, people move for jobs and employment tenure gets shorter, TFR may fall further.
Reasons Behind Falling TFR
§ Higher education
§ Increased mobility
§ Late marriage
§ Financially independent women and
§ Overall prosperity
Implications for Policymakers
§ India has entered a 37-year period of demographic dividend, which could spell faster economic growth and higher productivity.
§ As such, the government needs to engineer its policies to harness the opportunity.
§ It must also formulate policies to take care of higher medical costs as the population ages and productivity shrinks.
§ India will also need to have an affordable social security system that provides pension to the elderly and takes care of their daily needs and medical expenses.